As Donald Trump prepares to be sworn in as US president today, his impending leadership has created a new dilemma for Western companies still operating in Russia, forcing them to reassess how his policies might impact their business interests.
A Reuters report, based on discussions with lawyers, bankers, advisers, and business leaders involved in numerous Western corporate exits from Russia, reveals that companies still operating in the country are closely monitoring Trump’s potential actions and adapting their strategies accordingly.
Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, over a thousand multinational firms have faced the difficult decision of whether to stay or leave.
Many, including household names like Renault, McDonald’s, and Heineken, opted to exit, absorbing substantial losses through writedowns and discounted asset sales dictated by Russian authorities.
However, a number of companies have chosen to remain.
Consumer goods producers like PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and Mondelez defend their presence in Russia by citing the humanitarian importance of their products, while financial institutions such as Raiffeisen Bank International and UniCredit are constrained by profits trapped in the country and the complex approval process required for exit.
The cost of leaving Russia has risen sharply since October when Moscow introduced stricter exit terms.
Companies are now required to sell their assets at a minimum 60% discount and contribute 35% of the deal’s value to the Russian budget—a charge referred to by US officials as an “exit tax.”
This policy has added a significant financial burden to multinationals looking to cut ties with Russia.
Trump’s return: a potential game-changer?
With Trump’s inauguration, many companies are recalibrating their plans for Russia.
His administration’s promises to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict, even if unlikely to be fulfilled quickly, have created a new layer of geopolitical complexity.
“Trump’s election victory adds another layer of uncertainty for multinationals with assets in Russia,” said Ian Massey, Head of Corporate Intelligence, EMEA, at global risk consultancy S-RM.
While the Kremlin continues to ratchet up the costs of leaving the Russian market, Trump may reduce the costs of staying, creating a kind of stasis.
Legal and financial advisers working with companies in Russia note that Trump’s return could provide political cover for firms that decide to stay, while others may wait for potential sanctions relief that could make exits easier.
Alan Kartashkin, a partner at Debevoise and Plimpton, suggested that even limited sanctions relief might unfreeze foreign-owned assets stuck in Russia, unlocking another wave of divestments.
“We might see some sanctions being dialled down if the new administration is able to negotiate a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine,” he said.
The cost of leaving Russia
For companies aiming to leave Russia, the path has become significantly more arduous.
Moscow has implemented strict rules governing asset sales, requiring valuations by government-approved appraisers and auctions between local buyers.
High-value deals exceeding 50 billion roubles ($488 million) must be personally approved by President Vladimir Putin, with buyers required to demonstrate how the purchase benefits the Russian economy.
“The possibility of selling a large asset at the minimally accepted conditions is significantly limited,” said a Russian lawyer involved in corporate exits.
These hurdles have dramatically reduced the number of deals, now less than 20% of their mid-2023 peak, according to advisers.
Financing challenges compound the issue. With interest rates at 21%, the cost of borrowing is prohibitively high for many potential buyers, further shrinking the pool of eligible bidders.
The risks of staying in Russia
For companies that choose to remain, the risks are significant.
Moscow has placed more than a dozen foreign-owned assets under temporary state control, a move widely seen as a negotiating tactic to push down prices for local buyers.
Carlsberg learned this the hard way when its stake in Baltika Breweries was seized in July 2023, derailing a nearly finalized sale.
The Danish brewer eventually secured a 34-billion-rouble ($413 million) deal in December, but not without considerable delays and uncertainty.
Unilever managed to divest its Russian assets, including four factories, just before stricter rules took effect in October.
The deal, worth close to €500 million, marked a rare success story for a multinational navigating Russia’s tightened exit regime.
Trump’s wildcard effect
Trump’s return to the White House presents both risks and opportunities for Western companies.
On one hand, his administration could facilitate the easing of sanctions, potentially creating a window for smoother exits.
On the other, his unpredictable approach to international relations could lead to new complications.
“Trump is a wild card,” said a financial services professional familiar with Russia’s business environment.
“You just don’t know what he’s going to do,” he said.
For now, many multinationals are adopting a wait-and-see approach, weighing the costs of leaving against the risks of staying in an increasingly volatile market.
The coming months will likely determine whether Trump’s presidency shifts the balance in their favor—or adds new layers of uncertainty to an already fraught decision.
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