In December 2024, Mexico’s annual inflation rate dropped to a nearly four-year low of 4.21%, representing a notable decline of 0.34% from 4.55% in November.
The inflation rate below market expectations remains quite astounding as they had predicted a rate of 4.28%, according to data released by Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI)
However, the central bank’s target range of 2% to 4% is still not reached; thus, the current inflation rate is still above it.
Slow increases in key price categories
One of the primary drivers for the recent inflation respite was the deceleration of price increases in several vital consumer categories.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices happened to be the most consequential factors in household budgets, thus they grew by only 4.36% in December, while a much higher 6.03% was recorded in November.
This drastic downturn is a sign of the government’s intention to bring order in food prices while there are supply chain problems and other economic disturbances.
Additionally, the recreation and culture sector faced a few minor issues in price growth with a subsequent annual increase of 3.82% in December, lower than 3.93% the previous month.
Furthermore, the insurance and financial services sector had a remarkable decreasing trend in price increase, with just a 3.78% rise, while November was at a much higher 5.58%.
These conditions reflect the majority of prices have stabilized, and it could be that the government’s monetary policy procedures are slowly taking effect to control inflation.
Core inflation unnoticed increase
Core inflation rate has made a surprising jump despite the overall inflation rate decrease.
The core inflation rate is the annual rate of inflation that excludes goods (food and energy) whose prices are highly volatile; it increased to 3.65% in December.
This increase surpasses the market forecast of 3.62% and also it is a recovery from a drop which had set an over four-and-a-half-year low of 3.58% in November.
The core inflation rate results are important for decision-makers because they give an idea about the long-term price movements that can be concealed in the general inflation figures.
The rise in the core inflation creates the discussion of whether the inflation pressure is something that will remain or not.
Core inflation reacts more slowly to changes in monetary policy than the overall inflation and therefore this slight rise may be the signal that the fundamental inflation forces are still strong and will necessitate tough oversight from the central bank.
Monthly trends revealed modest growth
On the month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up by 0.38% in December which was almost in line with forecasts that a 0.40% rise would happen.
The core Consumer Price Index improved slightly more, reaching 0.51% while the market predicted this figure to be only 0.45%.
These numbers indicate that while the annual inflation may be declining, some elements of price pressure may still arise.
They would be driven in part by seasonal and cyclical factors.
Monetary policy in focus
The recently released inflation data creates a multifaceted scenario for the Bank of Mexico as it is treading through the configuration of economic upgrowth and curbing inflation through the active monetary policy.
Even though the decrease in overall inflation may introduce a favourable chance for monetary policy adjustments, still the increase in core inflation might require a careful approach regarding interest rate changes in the future.
The Bank of Mexico has a dual job to ensure stable prices while creating conditions for economic growth.
With the global economy in jeopardy and the local labour market controversial, the actions taken by the bank in the months to come will be pivotal.
Overall, Mexico’s consumer prices have shown signs of relaxation, dipping to a four-year low mark yet still being challenged by persistent core inflation numbers.
The collaboration between the government and the central bank in their bid to control inflation will be tracked very closely; indeed, the implications of these measures will be analyzed thoroughly by both experts and the public.
The trajectory of Mexico’s economy will demand careful assessment to attain stability and enduring growth soon.
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